[Focus observation] Seven new opportunities for the growth of the new energy automobile industry under severe conditions

1. Seeing opportunities in a crisis

"Don't waste a crisis.-Churchill"

The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought a long holiday beyond expectations, and when everyone was busy talking about the virus, the two business leaders launched their own new plans.

Meituan Wang Xing strongly promoted the "contactless delivery" system, and took the lead in cooperating with the China Electric Vehicles Association of Hundreds, and released the first "Unmanned Delivery Industry Joint Proposal", becoming the setter of service standards; Ali Ma Yun strongly promoted the "home office system" , The online office software "Dingding", in a wave of public relations with elementary school students openly begging for mercy online, overwhelmed WeChat and captured the No.1 download of Apple's APP.

It can be seen that at the same time as the crisis is encountered, the window of new opportunities is also opened. It's just that the dangers are often obvious, while the opportunities are hidden. Just as my country's new energy vehicle market performed poorly in the first quarter, it was just as the US stocks fuse four times in the half month when the epidemic swept the world. Fortunately, my country's epidemic has been effectively controlled, and economic recovery is in sight. Focusing on those hidden new opportunities is the top priority of my country's new energy automobile industry. To this end, the Hundreds of People's Association has integrated opinions from all parties and sorted out the following 7 new opportunities for industry growth for the industry's reference.

2. Grasp the 7 new opportunities for industrial development

New Opportunity 1: Grasp the window period for encouraging automobile consumption and promote the consumption of new energy automobiles

Affected by the new crown epidemic, the way people travel has undergone tremendous changes. Airplanes, high-speed rails, subways, buses, and taxis, these traditional means of transportation for the general public, have become the means of travel that people fear to avoid. The emerging shared travel tools such as online car-hailing and ride-hailing have also been ignored by people. Traveling by private car has become the most ideal means of transportation for people.

"After the epidemic, there will be a wave of car buying peaks with families as the main body", which has become the consensus of car manufacturers, dealers, and experts. The central and local governments also took advantage of this opportunity and intensively introduced a series of policies to encourage the consumption of automobiles and new energy vehicles.

At the level of the central government, it has issued policies to encourage automobile consumption for 5 consecutive times, and 2 of them clearly stated that it is necessary to focus on supporting the new energy automobile market.

On February 16, "Seeking Truth" published an important article that pointed out that it is necessary to actively stabilize the bulk consumption of automobiles and encourage the increase of license plates in areas where automobile purchases are restricted; on February 20, the Ministry of Commerce stated that it will cooperate with relevant departments to study and introduce further stabilization of automobiles. Consumption policy measures, encourage localities to introduce measures to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, increase the purchase limit of traditional vehicles, and carry out vehicle replacement; on February 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document stating that it is necessary to focus on supporting the development of strategic emerging industries including new energy vehicles. Encourage the appropriate opening of purchase restrictions and actively introduce guidelines to encourage automobile consumption; on March 13, 23 ministries and commissions including the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Expansion and Quality of Consumption and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market", proposing to promote the restriction and guidance of automobile purchases Use policy changes to encourage areas with restricted automobile purchases to appropriately increase vehicle license plate quotas; on March 26, the Department of Service and Trade of the Ministry of Commerce stated that the Ministry of Commerce encourages localities to introduce measures to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles and carry out trade-in for new energy vehicles in order to further stabilize the situation. And expand auto consumption.

At the local government level, as of March 27, 9 cities and regions have issued and implemented policies to promote automobile consumption, including: Foshan, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shenzhen in Guangdong Province, Changsha, Zhuzhou, Xiangtan in Hunan Province, and Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province City, Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province. The following are incomplete statistics from network information:

The intensive promulgation of these policies has given a valuable window period for new energy vehicles, especially the requirement that the state leaders and relevant ministries and commissions have repeatedly raised the requirement of "appropriately increasing the number plate quotas for auto purchase areas to drive the consumption of automobiles and related products". It gave new energy vehicles a powerful sword to break through the barriers of purchase restriction areas.

However, there is one variable that must attract the attention of car companies, that is, the policies issued by the central and local governments have almost one thing in common: both encourage the purchase of new energy vehicles and the purchase of fuel vehicles. This is slightly different from the previous years, when the central and local governments have introduced more support for the consumption of new energy vehicles and curbed the consumption of fuel vehicles. Some people in the industry believe that this kind of policy that fully encourages the consumption of the overall automobile market is far more beneficial to fuel vehicles than new energy vehicles, and will even weaken consumers' willingness to buy new energy vehicles to a certain extent.

New Opportunity 2: "New Infrastructure" Helps Speed ​​Up the Charging Pile Industry

On March 4, the state once again emphasized the need to speed up the construction of seven “new infrastructure” including “new energy vehicle charging piles”. To some extent, this favorable policy for the new energy vehicle charging market and the charging infrastructure industry is also a boost to the new energy vehicle market. Speeding up the construction and layout of charging piles will directly improve the car environment and indirectly alleviate consumers' mileage anxiety.

Data show that in 2019, my country's overall sales of new energy vehicles are more than 1.2 million, and the overall inventory is close to 4 million. As of the end of January 2020, my country has built 531,000 public charging piles and 712,000 private charging piles. The ratio of new energy vehicles to piles is 3.5:1, which is far lower than the "Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Development Guide (2015-2020)" Planning 1:1. According to estimates, the market for charging pile equipment in my country will be 116.5 billion yuan in 2020 and 237.8 billion yuan in 2025.

Enterprises generally have a positive attitude towards "new infrastructure". CATL and Fujian Baicheng New Energy have established a joint venture company, which will account for 49% of the shares in the construction and operation of new energy charging and replacement facilities; State Grid is expected to invest 5 billion yuan in the construction of charging networks in 2020 ; Zou Dazhong, chairman of China Southern Power Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., said that "we have already made plans to accelerate investment and industrial deployment." According to China Southern Power Grid's plan, 25 billion yuan will be invested in the construction of charging networks in the next four years.

However, while companies are gearing up, they also need to be reminded to avoid a misunderstanding. Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy Vehicle Innovation Engineering Expert Group, suggested that the industry should pay more attention to solutions that combine parking and charging to reduce blindness in the construction of public charging stations. It is the best and most economical solution to combine the difficulty of parking and charging, and go to the parking place to charge.

New Opportunity 3: Accelerate the promotion of electrification of public operating vehicles

The development of the new energy automobile industry should have long-term strategic thinking. Leaving aside the short-term impact of the current epidemic on the suppression of automobile consumption, in the long run, the global trend of electrification has been unstoppable, and the replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles is the general trend.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a meeting and proposed to organize industry forces to develop an action plan to promote the electrification of public vehicles. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Justice issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Establishment of Green Production and Consumption Regulations and Policies. It also pointed out that it is necessary to encourage new and updated vehicles in the fields of public transport, environmental sanitation, rental, commuting, urban postal express operations, and urban logistics to adopt new energy and clean Energy vehicles.

Relevant local governments have also issued policies to actively promote the promotion and use of new energy vehicles in the public domain. For example, Beijing, Nanjing, Putian, Xiong’an New District and other places have all introduced policies to realize the use of new energy vehicles in the fields of logistics, freight, and public transportation.

In a video conference organized by the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the 16th of this month, participants generally stated that the high frequency of using new energy vehicles in the public domain can not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also promote the improvement of supporting infrastructure and the promotion and application of them. Model innovation has played a strong leading role in the private consumption of new energy vehicles.

New Opportunity 4: Accelerate the establishment of a power battery recycling industry chain

On March 26, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Key Points of Industrial Energy Conservation and Comprehensive Utilization in 2020", which will promote the construction of a new energy vehicle power battery recycling system, carry out in-depth pilot work, accelerate the exploration of a market-based model for battery recycling, and cultivate a group of backbones enterprise.

At the same time, it will study and formulate the "Administrative Measures for the Echelon Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries" and establish an evaluation mechanism for echelon utilization products. Relying on the "Integrated Management Platform for the National Monitoring of New Energy Vehicles and the Traceability of Power Battery Recycling", improve laws and regulations, and urge enterprises to accelerate the implementation of traceability and recycling responsibilities.

According to the report of "Let Power Batteries Flow-Life Cycle Asset Operation Management of Power Batteries" released by the China Electric Vehicles Association in 2019, the rapid growth of my country's new energy vehicle market has driven the growth of power battery installed capacity. From 16GWh in 2015 to 576GWh in 2018, the compound annual growth rate reached 54%. According to the calculation of the 5-8 years service life of vehicle power batteries, the power batteries put into production in 2014 will enter the mass obsolescence period in 2019, and the amount of battery retirement will face a greater increase in 2020. How to solve the problem of power battery recycling is particularly urgent. .

At the same time, the cascade recycling of power batteries will help reduce the cost of vehicle use, further alleviate consumers' battery life anxiety, and is also of great value for promoting the popularization of new energy vehicles.

New opportunity 5: Focus on user experience and adjust automotive product design ideas

Consumers are the most downstream of the automotive industry chain, and whether consumers pay is the highest standard for testing products. In 2020, new energy subsidies will be completely withdrawn. The epidemic has magnified the impact of the consumer side on the industry and accelerated the process of companies facing the market.

The epidemic is forcing auto companies to accelerate innovation, focus on consumers' actual car needs, and adjust their product design ideas for the purpose of good user experience.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, many media and market institutions have launched user surveys on the topic of "auto consumption after the epidemic". The data shows that affected by the epidemic, health-related equipment such as disinfection in the car has become a new demand for most consumers; at the same time, the epidemic has stimulated the willingness of the first car buyers to buy cars, and the proportion of intentional purchases of pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles Is improving.

New changes in consumer demand were quickly captured by some car companies. Many car manufacturers began to incorporate health concepts into product functional design, adding health-related configurations, such as air disinfection and purification, body temperature, heart rate monitoring and other health functions.

In this regard, Wang Xiaoming, a researcher at the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said, “Whether it is a public or private space, the car cockpit has the attributes of being a space.” Affected by the epidemic, the industry itself has undergone some new changes, such as health concepts "It turns out that we talked about the'four modernizations' for automobiles, but we may have to add one more and'healthy' in the future."

In fact, in addition to the demand for healthier and safer travel space, many new energy users pay more attention to the difference between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. In short, it is intelligent and convenient configuration. For example, human-machine voice interaction replaces key operations, such as APP software control to replace traditional car keys, etc. These are all experience upgrades that users can directly see, and are especially favored by the younger generation of consumers. In this regard, electric vehicles are obviously more advantageous.

New Opportunity 6: Unmanned Delivery\No-contact travel is now a new machine

The epidemic has stimulated the demand for unmanned terminal distribution. For the sake of safety and epidemic prevention, the concept of "contactless distribution" has rapidly emerged. During the epidemic, many e-commerce, logistics and autonomous driving companies have put their products into pilot projects, using unmanned delivery methods to deliver medical and living supplies to hospitals, communities, and commercial areas. For example, in Shunyi District, Beijing, Meituan launched unmanned delivery vehicles Provide food delivery service for residents. According to McKinsey’s forecast, 80% of all deliveries will be automatically delivered in the next 10 years.

In addition, in view of the new demand for reducing contact to stop the spread of the virus, functions such as keyless entry, voice interaction, remote control of mobile phone APP, and epidemic risk warning based on big data are favored by consumers. For example, NIO’s NOMI robot replaces the user’s touch operation frequency with voice interaction. For another example, combining the vehicle's GPS driving records and the official epidemic situation, the system can determine whether the vehicle has visited the epidemic area recently, prompting the user to conduct self-checking and defense, or reminding the surrounding vehicles to pay attention.

On February 24, 11 ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Smart Vehicle Innovation Development Strategy", which once again emphasized the strategic significance of intelligent connected vehicles at the policy level. The epidemic has unlocked the landing application of unmanned delivery and accelerated the upgrading and application of related smart car technologies. These will become the internal driving force for accelerating the development of my country's smart car industry, and the smart car industry has ushered in a new round of development opportunities.

According to the research of Chebai Think Tank, the epidemic has stimulated the market demand for unmanned delivery in the short term, but there are still many problems such as "low efficiency and high cost" and "difficulty in safety supervision". Enter the system, and promote the establishment of industry consensus from the perspective of the entire industry, and gradually expand demonstration applications. (Refer to "Current Status, Challenges and Suggestions of Domestic Commercialization of Unmanned Delivery")

New Opportunity 7: The time for overseas M&A by local companies

Benefiting from the rapid development of my country's new energy automobile industry in recent years, industry chain companies have gradually accelerated their pace of going global in recent years.

In terms of vehicle exports, according to the statistics of the Chebai Think Tank, my country’s new energy vehicle exports from January to October 2019 were 20,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 209.39%; the export volume of low-speed electric vehicles was 186,500 units. The export countries include Bangladesh, India, South Korea, the Philippines, Italy, Chile, Nepal, Israel, Canada, Brazil, the Netherlands, etc.

At the same time, my country's new energy automobile and parts companies are also accelerating the pace of overseas investment. New energy vehicle and parts companies mainly build plants in Europe, Asia and South America, while companies in the power battery field are concentrated in Germany and Poland.

The global spread of the epidemic accelerated in mid-March, the international auto market quickly turned cold, and the demand for car purchases was postponed. The production rhythm of international car companies is reversely blocked, and the supply of parts and components is affected by the globalization of the supply chain facing the risk of "broken chain". The asset turnover rate of international companies is reduced, revenue and profit expectations are reduced, and the capital chain is at risk of rupture. Che Bai think tank believes that the current international industrial environment is conducive to domestic enterprises to take this opportunity to increase overseas mergers and acquisitions, obtain global high-quality industry resources, and shorten the gap with foreign auto industries.

2020, for new energy vehicles, is a year of transition, a crucial year, a sad year, and a year in which there is a way out for fighting. The new energy automobile industry has to face more competitors, as well as the self in transition. Only by doing yourself well can you achieve yourself.

Written by Shen Chengpeng, Cong Feifei